Completed Event: Men's Basketball at Baylor on October 10, 2025 , Loss , 74, to, 79
M Basketball
at Baylor
L 74-79
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Grand Canyon University Athletics
Photo by: David Kadlubowski
National analysts look to Lopes for potential upset
3/19/2024 11:47:00 AM | Men's Basketball, Paul Coro, Lopes Insider Blog
GCU faces Saint Mary's as No. 12 seed, which has won 35% of 1st-round games
Grand Canyon is seeking its first NCAA Division I tournament win in its third appearance, and the pundits are ready to give the Lopes that victory and possibly more.
With the four NCAA tournament regional games between No. 12 seeds and No. 5 seeds being historically susceptible to upset, college basketball experts who are looking for an upset have focused on No. 12 seed GCU (29-4) playing No. 5 seed Saint Mary's (26-7) on Friday night in Spokane, Washington.
The Lopes love started the moment that the first-round matchup was revealed Sunday on the NCAA Selection Show, where CBS college basketball insider Seth Davis immediately predicted a GCU win and then doubled down by saying that head coach Bryce Drew's Lopes would reach the Sweet 16.
"I like them to beat Saint Mary's, and I think they're going to beat Alabama because they're going to have the geographic home-court advantage out there in Spokane, Washington," said Davis, who was perhaps referring to how Spokane's Gonzaga fans might root against West Coast Conference rival Saint Mary's.
Since the NCAA tournament field was expanded in 1985, No. 12 seeds have beaten No. 5 seeds in 35% of the games. At least one No. 12 seed has won in 32 of the past 38 tournaments, with the last two No. 12 seed wins occurring in 2022 when then-WAC champion New Mexico State beat UConn.
"They (the Lopes) are a legit threat," said ESPN analyst Josh Pastner, the former Memphis and Georgia Tech head coach who assisted at Arizona. "I absolutely love them at the 12. From watching them, they can flat out play. Here's the thing: not a lot of people know about them, and so all of a sudden, people are trying to scramble. The assistant coaches are trying to get film on them right now and try to figure out how they play. I think it's a quick turnaround.
"I like Grand Canyon not only to win this first game, look at them to possibly get into the Sweet 16. I don't think there's that much separation between Grand Canyon and the other teams in those first two games, talent-wise."
Sean Farnham, Pastner's ESPN partner on a pre-tournament show, was more reserved in his GCU support while calling the matchup "a high-level game."
"Styles make the fight," Farnham said. "I think Grand Canyon is going to want to push tempo, create tempo. Can they press and can they disrupt and can they get Saint Mary's out of its comfort zone? Or does Saint Mary's take the air out of the ball and offensive rebound? The best total rebounding percentage in all of college basketball. I think that matchup is more difficult for Saint Mary's than a second-round matchup would be against Alabama."
GCU is facing a WCC champion in the NCAA tournament for the second consecutive year after losing 82-70 to Gonzaga in the first round last year. But former Zags star Drew Timme took enough notice of the Lopes that he picked GCU over Saint Mary's in the bracket that he did for NCAA March Madness.
The Athletic ranked the GCU-Saint Mary's game as the fifth-most likely upset, giving the Lopes a 30.4% chance of winning.
"Saint Mary's is in danger in this game," analyst Matt Norlander said on the CBS March Madness Special. "Grand Canyon is for real. I'm going to go with the Gaels and (head coach) Randy Bennett. I think they're got the size and physicality to win, but this is a slippery, tricky 12-5 matchup. I'm going with the Gaels and I'm confident in the Gaels, but I think this game will be a toss-up with two minutes to go."
Clark Kellogg, the lead CBS college basketball analyst, said GCU "can actually win" and called it "a comfortable matchup."
"This team is top 20 in field goal defense," Kellogg said of the Lopes. "They can bang inside with Saint Mary's, and they also average 80 points a game. They've got a player in Tyon Grant-Foster, an NBA wing player potentially that is dynamic. This is going to be a heck of a matchup to lock into."
The Sporting News ("classic first-round March Madness game") and the New York Post ("best first-round matchup" of the West Regional) both hyped the game. Each picked Saint Mary's, but The Sporting News noted that Grant-Foster would be the best player on the floor.
ESPN analyst King McClure, a college teammate of GCU assistant coach Jake Lindsey, also favored the Lopes and cited Grant-Foster as a major reason shy.
"Shout-out to Bryce Drew," McClure said. "They've got dudes. They're dominant. They've been there before."
NCAA March Madness reporter/analyst Andy Katz did not board on the GCU bandwagon.
"This is a 5-12 where a lot of people are going to be intrigued to go with the Lopes," Katz said. "I don't think this team is as good as they were a year ago when they got to the NCAA tournament.
"Randy Bennett has done an exceptional job with this group. They are never easy to prepare for. Grand Canyon is going to want to run, and Saint Mary's isn't going to let them, and I think Saint Mary's wins."
With the four NCAA tournament regional games between No. 12 seeds and No. 5 seeds being historically susceptible to upset, college basketball experts who are looking for an upset have focused on No. 12 seed GCU (29-4) playing No. 5 seed Saint Mary's (26-7) on Friday night in Spokane, Washington.
The Lopes love started the moment that the first-round matchup was revealed Sunday on the NCAA Selection Show, where CBS college basketball insider Seth Davis immediately predicted a GCU win and then doubled down by saying that head coach Bryce Drew's Lopes would reach the Sweet 16."I like them to beat Saint Mary's, and I think they're going to beat Alabama because they're going to have the geographic home-court advantage out there in Spokane, Washington," said Davis, who was perhaps referring to how Spokane's Gonzaga fans might root against West Coast Conference rival Saint Mary's.
Since the NCAA tournament field was expanded in 1985, No. 12 seeds have beaten No. 5 seeds in 35% of the games. At least one No. 12 seed has won in 32 of the past 38 tournaments, with the last two No. 12 seed wins occurring in 2022 when then-WAC champion New Mexico State beat UConn.
"They (the Lopes) are a legit threat," said ESPN analyst Josh Pastner, the former Memphis and Georgia Tech head coach who assisted at Arizona. "I absolutely love them at the 12. From watching them, they can flat out play. Here's the thing: not a lot of people know about them, and so all of a sudden, people are trying to scramble. The assistant coaches are trying to get film on them right now and try to figure out how they play. I think it's a quick turnaround.
"I like Grand Canyon not only to win this first game, look at them to possibly get into the Sweet 16. I don't think there's that much separation between Grand Canyon and the other teams in those first two games, talent-wise."
Sean Farnham, Pastner's ESPN partner on a pre-tournament show, was more reserved in his GCU support while calling the matchup "a high-level game."
"Styles make the fight," Farnham said. "I think Grand Canyon is going to want to push tempo, create tempo. Can they press and can they disrupt and can they get Saint Mary's out of its comfort zone? Or does Saint Mary's take the air out of the ball and offensive rebound? The best total rebounding percentage in all of college basketball. I think that matchup is more difficult for Saint Mary's than a second-round matchup would be against Alabama."
GCU is facing a WCC champion in the NCAA tournament for the second consecutive year after losing 82-70 to Gonzaga in the first round last year. But former Zags star Drew Timme took enough notice of the Lopes that he picked GCU over Saint Mary's in the bracket that he did for NCAA March Madness.
The Athletic ranked the GCU-Saint Mary's game as the fifth-most likely upset, giving the Lopes a 30.4% chance of winning.
"Saint Mary's is in danger in this game," analyst Matt Norlander said on the CBS March Madness Special. "Grand Canyon is for real. I'm going to go with the Gaels and (head coach) Randy Bennett. I think they're got the size and physicality to win, but this is a slippery, tricky 12-5 matchup. I'm going with the Gaels and I'm confident in the Gaels, but I think this game will be a toss-up with two minutes to go."
Clark Kellogg, the lead CBS college basketball analyst, said GCU "can actually win" and called it "a comfortable matchup.""This team is top 20 in field goal defense," Kellogg said of the Lopes. "They can bang inside with Saint Mary's, and they also average 80 points a game. They've got a player in Tyon Grant-Foster, an NBA wing player potentially that is dynamic. This is going to be a heck of a matchup to lock into."
The Sporting News ("classic first-round March Madness game") and the New York Post ("best first-round matchup" of the West Regional) both hyped the game. Each picked Saint Mary's, but The Sporting News noted that Grant-Foster would be the best player on the floor.
ESPN analyst King McClure, a college teammate of GCU assistant coach Jake Lindsey, also favored the Lopes and cited Grant-Foster as a major reason shy.
"Shout-out to Bryce Drew," McClure said. "They've got dudes. They're dominant. They've been there before."
NCAA March Madness reporter/analyst Andy Katz did not board on the GCU bandwagon.
"This is a 5-12 where a lot of people are going to be intrigued to go with the Lopes," Katz said. "I don't think this team is as good as they were a year ago when they got to the NCAA tournament.
"Randy Bennett has done an exceptional job with this group. They are never easy to prepare for. Grand Canyon is going to want to run, and Saint Mary's isn't going to let them, and I think Saint Mary's wins."
Players Mentioned
G
/ Men's BasketballMidnight Madness 2025
Monday, October 06
Makaih Williams | Media Availability | 9.3.25
Thursday, September 04
Dusty Stromer | Media Availability | 9.3.25
Thursday, September 04
Kaleb Smith | Media Availability | 9.3.25
Thursday, September 04